This style of argument has always bothered me, because the correction to misdiagnosis or mistreatment is not to stop looking, it's _git gud_.
For sure, we have to be realistic about what processes will systematically have error, and if we can't stop a doctor from doing bad things with a piece of data we should shield them from it, but the tools to make scalable, calibrated risk estimates based on large data dumps is getting better every year.
There are physical limits to detection and technical parameters that make some situations indeterminate even for the best of the 'gud'. It is frustrating that, hearing an argument from many different individuals over a long time, you assume that each speaker is missing the critical insight that you possess.
> but the tools to make scalable, calibrated risk estimates based on large data dumps is getting better every year.
So your suggestion for indeterminate scans is more scans? There is no 'large data dump' personalized to you except for your own imaging.
> if we can't stop a doctor from doing bad things with a piece of data we should shield them from it
The doctor isn't the problem, it's the people who would be seeking out monthly imaging without symptoms
I go to the doctor every year for a checkup without symptoms. Why a year? Why not every six months? Two weeks? Day?
If the false positive rate is demonstrably low, I can't see the risk. People who think they need a doctor will go to a doctor with or without a fancy scan. People who want to play armchair physician will play armchair physician with or without a fancy scan.
> If the false positive rate is demonstrably low, I can't see the risk
The false positive rate is the entire risk.
When you go to the doctor for a physical they don't run all of the blood tests they can. They only run them for specific symptoms and for specific preventative measures where we've calculated that the benefits outweigh the risks of a false positive.
Some tests have been removed from routine exams, or at least discouraged, because they were producing more false positives and harm than what they were saving.
Full body scans are deep on the end of the spectrum of tests with high false positive rate when ordered without supporting symptoms. That's the risk.
> People who think they need a doctor will go to a doctor with or without a fancy scan. People who want to play armchair physician will play armchair physician with or without a fancy scan.
Not really how it works in real life. When you get a full body scan, especially with ultrasound, there are a lot of benign things that can show up that vaguely look like non-benign things. Even if the interpretation is "probably nothing", many people start worrying and think they need to get more tests just to be safe. Even people who don't see themselves as "armchair physician" will start thinking that they should at least rule out the worst case because they wouldn't want to die of cancer having known that something might have been there.
They only run them for specific symptoms and for specific preventative measures where we've calculated that the benefits outweigh the risks of a false positive.
True to some extent, but you're ignoring the role that costs and insurance play here. Do you really think the personal physicians of billionaires and heads of state are only running a limited set of blood work because they're worried about false positives?
You can get scans without your normal doctor recommending them. The point is that there is evidence that scans obtained ‘just because’ are harmful as they lead to unnecessary procedures at the population level
More often it leads to people thinking they have issues when they don't.
The same thing happens with blood tests: You can order all the blood tests you want if you're willing to pay for them. If you order enough, you will get some that show up as abnormal. You can start spending tens of thousands of dollars ruling things out and never catch any real issues.
I’d want to see the data, and even if you had 10x the rate of false positives (to true positives) that resulted in unnecessary tests and procedures, it still could be worth it, depending on the severity of what you avoided with the testing.
I actually don't think we have the data available that I want, and even if we do, as many others here have pointed out, intentionally sticking our heads in the sand forever makes no sense.
How do you get the false positive rate low? There's a lot of things that look weird on a scan that turn out to be benign. And if you tell patients "well the chance this turns into a serious disease or cancer is low but you can get this optional procedure to fix it now if you want" how many do you think will take them up on it?
A new chargeable procedure is for for the hospital but maybe not for patients imo.
Many countries with far better outcomes don’t do this, is it necessary, or is it just the product of an insurance-driven health industry which prioritises interventions over health?
Maybe there is a bias for action within our moral and legal system. Fundamentally if you can deal with uncertainty correctly or "perfectly" wouldn't more information always be better?
I have libertarian enough tendencies to think that if a person wants to self-operate, or pay for an operation that doctors are telling them is not justified given the evidence, then they should have right to do it. But I don't think that's what people normally mean when they say that eager screening causes harmful overdiagnosis.
> So your suggestion for indeterminate scans is more scans?
The solution to imperfect evidence is consistent and calibrated risk estimation of both disease and intervention.
The risk estimation is why people aren’t recommended to get scans! There are studies on ‘VIPs’ who get ‘executive MRIs’ and wind up getting treated for things that would never have justified intervention.
Isn't the way we decide what justifies intervention by comparing observational data, action and outcomes? Currently our observations are limited by many things including the cost and side effects. More frequent or better observations will improve the assessment of what justifies interventions.
That sounds more like a capitalism issue, to be honest. Treatment = revenue, so of course there will be unscrupulous individuals who will bend their oath and let patient anxiety drive care.
The trick seems like it would be to strongly incentivize waiting and watching any symptomless anomalies if further investigation is invasive. If you're getting 60 second scans every month then something growing will be catchable and something static or that disappears can be ignored until the next scan.
exactly correct. if a bit of knowledge is dangerous, the correct response is not to choose ignorance, it is to get more knowledge about what dangers arise and problemsolve some more there. run it out a few hundred years and it is then no longer dangerous, and strictly better than ignorance.
If Midjourney says "maybe you have cancer" but your doctor doesn't take it seriously, you might sue if you do end up with cancer. You might even win, regardless of whether "wait and see" was the right approach.
Meanwhile, if your doctor gives you an unnecessary CT scan that rules out cancer, hospital both earns $$$ and the doctor doesn't face legal consequences. Your increased chance of cancer risk from the radiation isn't something you can realistically sue over.
No one is saying that we should stop looking. Especially not the commenter you replied to. They're saying the tech Midjourney presented isn't _gud_ enough to justify frequent scanning.
Consider the null space of diagnostic markers, say, the precise shape of a tissue boundary used in early cancer diagnoses that comes out blurry in an imaging system every time. More scans with the same null space will not resolve the null space.
> This style of argument has always bothered me, because the correction to misdiagnosis or mistreatment is not to stop looking, it's _git gud_.
Exactly this. I mean, even if the scan is really indeterminate, at a minimum you can simply wait, then scan again. If it's truly something serious, it will become determinate at some point. Doing this is still better than nothing and carries no risks of unnecessary procedures.
Wow this paper is bad. I was expecting little and received genuine crackpottery.
It's hard to critique this paper directly because its claims are so incoherent and decorated with so much obnoxious verbiage[1] that people aren't going to believe me when I point out what the claims actually are.
Regardless, this is their paper:
First, they conflate the substrate with the presentation layer. Then, they point out that Turing equivalence means you can run an LLM on anything, with a pointless aside where they nerd out about making a logic gate in AoE II. This lets them conclude that you can use anything as the presentation layer.
Then they claim that it's natural to ascribe human-like attributes to outputs from some presentation layers, like abstract letter symbols on a computer screen, but not to most other things, like patterns of goats on AoE II, or LEGO. Yes, this seems to imply if your partner writes something heartwarming to you using LEGO, you're meant to laugh at them and point out how LEGO isn't intelligent so this isn't evidence of anything.
Then they do a thing where they say that assuming substrate independence is true (or false) prevents proving whether substrate independence is true or false, and from this, but just by vibes AFAICT, make it sound like everything one could learn about attributes of a system from its outputs is circular.
Then they write a bunch more incoherent text and mercifully then it ends.
[1] 'from an epistemic perspective, we argue
that a generalised conclusion such as that necessarily requires a well-designed experiment' — the whole thing is like this.
They don't even implement their logic gates within the normal game mechanics but with scripting some bit-goats in the editor. So the AoE2 Engine is just a graphical representation of their script.
But my favorite is this one:
"Corollary 1 (AoE II is Turing-Complete). Let I be an instance of AoE II with two players p0, p1. Assume p0 has two markets, a town centre, a trade cart, six villagers, and five farms; while p1 has a scout unit and only attacks p0’s buildings. Then if I has no time or size limits and the terrain allows for buildings everywhere, the game session in I is Turing-complete."
Why being so explicit about the setup with no further explanation? Isn't it anymore turing complete with seven villagers and six farms? Is it even possible that a player can trade with himself?
Right. Several of those use stacks of little discs instead of balls. More compact, but if one of those discs gets turned sideways, the lock is jammed.
Pick-resistant locks have two known problems. First, if they have to fit inside a traditional lock cylinder space, the options are very limited. If you're willing to have a bigger lock body, pick resistance isn't as hard.
The second is more subtle. Pin-tumbler locks, as they wear, become easier to open. The pins wear and become rounded. Pick resistance decreases, but you don't get locked out. Some high-security designs fail in the direction of staying locked, even with a valid key. So either you have angry customers locked out, or everything has to be made in stainless steel with high precision at high cost. (That's Abloy.)
I broadly agree those are good to consider (a typical requirement for my own designs is to fit the KIK format as-is), but I think you're being a little too absolute. Enclave deserves some recognition here for getting pretty close. It's just a sidebar and a cam, totally normal lock components. The simpler cylinder-in-cylinder designs are also mostly just hardware that multi-shearline locks already have for master keying.
You can't normally describe it as profit because stocks by rule trade at a fair price, but it's surely reasonable to consider in this case GME making a profit from the squeeze given they were selling a good well above fair acquisition price.
no, they issued more stock. stock is a claim on corporate equity, ie the delta between assets and liabilities. existing stock holders' claim to equity gets diluted when this happens, but share prices will often not be effected proportionally, making it appear the company has "made a billion dollars" when in fact they've just split the same pie into smaller pieces and managed to sell it at the same price. ryan now seems to think he can issue shares to acquire ebay, which will be much harder than fleecing retail.
> We understand that some may wish to sensationalize a public crisis like this, but we would implore anybody to consider the ethics of the situation before publicizing this matter to a wider audience than is already exposed to it, or interjecting with prying questions.
Fundamentally, there are two ways of representing iteration pipelines: source driven, and drain driven. This almost always maps to the idea of _internal_ iteration and _external_ iteration, because the source is wrapped inside the transforms. Transducers are unusual in being source driven but also external iterators.
Most imperative languages choose one of two things, internal iteration that doesn't support composable flow control, and external iteration that does. This is why you see pause/resume style iteration in Python, Rust, Java, and even Javascript. If that's your experience, transducers are a pretty novel place in the trade-off space: you keep most of the composability, but you get to drive it from things like event sources.
But the gap is a bit smaller than it might appear. Rust's iterators are conceptually external iterators, but they actually do support internal iteration through `try_fold`, and even in languages that don't, you can 'just' convert external to internal iterators.
Then all you have to do to recover what transducers give you is pass the object to the source, let it run `try_fold` whenever it has data, and check for early termination via `size_hint`. There's one more trick for the rare case of iterators with buffering, but you don't have to change the Iterator interface for that, you just need to pass one bit of shared state to the objects on construction.
Not all Iterators are strictly valid to be source-driven, and while most do, not everything works nicely when iterated this way (eg. Skip could but doesn't handle this case correctly, because it's not required to), but I don't think transducers can actually do anything this setup can't. It's just an API difference after that point.
I wasn't saying you would have that experience, I was saying that the reason people act like transducers are unique is that transducers are an unconventional place on well worn ground.
Ultimately, yes, everything bottoms out, most special tricks seem less special the more you understand about them, because it's programming and Turing Equivalence is the bedrock the whole field rests on. But the average person learning about transducers is not going to spot how closely related it is to other things that already exist.
I'm happy to elaborate on any part of the terminology if you're curious, but tbh I mostly wrote it for myself because I thought the framing was novel and wanted it noted down somewhere.
Do you not... remember? The US life expectancy is 79 years. 7.9 years ago was late May 2018. The best LLM was... wait, there weren't any. There was ELMo, an embedding model. It wasn't just not smart at agentic coding, it wasn't even just not smart at writing code snippets, it wasn't even just not smart at answering questions of any kind, it wasn't even just not good at producing a coherent output, it wasn't even just not good at producing coherent sentences, it was _not even the point where people thought unconstrained text output was a thing machines did_.
There is no step along the ladder which has remotely evidenced or supported that the next step is going to be ten, twenty, a hundred times harder than the last step on the ladder, but a constant chorus of people singing at every moment, each moment wrong, that the next step is the one.
There's nothing I've seen that cannot be modeled as an asymptotic approach to highish human intelligence. Which makes sense, since it's essentially a parroting model, and the limit of that is by definition, the same highish human intelligence. I don't think one can assume that thrusting beyond that is self-evident.
Put more succinctly: You can't win a race by following the leaders. Predicting the next token based on training input is literally "following" (plus some random variation).
It turns out there is literally no amount of being publicly right about a longshot bet sufficient for people to conclude you hold your beliefs because you think they are true.
But longshot bettors have it easy. Society quickly forgets all the predictions that don't come true. It remembers the one that did, and treats the prognosticator as a prophet. In social terms, predicting doom is an asymmetrical strategy, because you only have to be right once.
Which is also to say it's a cheap bet that anyone with no reputation can afford. Hence, not believing doomsayers mean what they say is a sort of societal hedge against people flooding the zone with doomsday scenarios about everything.
Entire sick post was: "Hey, if you think I'm bad, look at Elon. I'm the one that tried to stop him having control."
Altman is a ghoul, and we can't be cowed into saying otherwise. he's also supported all the weakness in society that has lead to sick people doing sick things.
We needn't be cowed into saying otherwise, but throwing a bomb at him is something else entirely. If you're convinced that wicked people are running the world, the response isn't to be wicked.
For sure, we have to be realistic about what processes will systematically have error, and if we can't stop a doctor from doing bad things with a piece of data we should shield them from it, but the tools to make scalable, calibrated risk estimates based on large data dumps is getting better every year.
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