MCP fell out of favor due to token usage, but I’m starting to feel that by default AIs should only have access to MCPs and not APIs. We can make MCPs deterministic, but not the AI models. It’s only a matter of time before they hallucinate and lie.
That’s until food and energy price increases become unbearable for the masses. While the first test is already here with gas prices, we’ll have the second test soon in the form of 50% price increases on food in developed Western countries.
In some places, like the Philippines, gas/fuel prices are up 70-100% since the start of the Special Four Day Operation in Iran. It's easy to say "who cares doesn't affect me", which sounds nice. But the Philippines is a major manufacturing hub of stuff that keeps life artificially cheap in the west. The rest of SE Asia is undergoing similar rapid price increases. Thailand, Malaysia, etc make lots of electronic components which will be facing a huge squeeze very soon.
The reason for those price increases is those countries don't have massive fuel stockpiles. The west does have big stockpiles, and they're artificially suppressing the price of fuel by releasing those stockpiles and hoping the special operation is over before their stockpiles run out. Because if prices shoot up now, people will realize just how truly disastrous it all is and actual consequences for various governments may be had, so the only option is to kick the can down the road and hope it somehow resolves itself.
Asia is in a particularly bad situation, because even for countries that do have stockpiles, they get basically all of their oil from Iran, the UAE, east coast of Saudi Arabia, etc. Now they have no oil. America can pretend it's a 4D chess move and now those countries will buy American oil and make their economy great again. But the thing is America isn't selling any additional oil to Asia. But America is 100% dependent on cheap things made in Asia, things that are built with plastic made from middle eastern oil and powered by electricity generated from middle eastern oil and shipped on boats running on middle eastern oil. All these things take months to show any effects to Americans and Europeans, so until then, it's just a game of burying heads in the sand until the situation suddenly explodes.
For a lot of us this perturbation hurts portfolios, tightens the belt, and hurts business investments… But oil and food production are tied together in numerous ways.
We’re looking at fuel shocks, downstream the agricultural, fertilizer, and food shocks are gonna cost untold anguish and many lives. Farmer suicides and famines, as the start of a destabilizing wave.
1) for the second time in my adult life I have to ask aloud how shit Dick Cheney was saying on 60 minutes ca 1993 escaped the notice of the entire US military and its commander in chief
2) the obvious lack of a post-strike plan and confusion about how mountains and waterways work make it hard to pin down how elementary and remedial the eff-ups here really are, so incompetent and indifferent
No one cares about who made these videos in the US. The bigger issue is why are we engaging in a ground war in Iran when it doesn’t really serve US interests? Everyone on both political spectrums in the US can see why it benefits Saudi Arabia and Israel, but not the US.
We’re using precious resources like missiles that we will need in the Pacific theater in next 1-2 years
Because it wasn’t planned that far. The administration probably thought it would go like Venezuela. A Middle East historian would have told you Iran has building for all our war for decades because it trusts none of its neighbors.
A second problem is that the US knew for a while that we were weak at asymmetric warfare but we didn’t fix it. There was a war game in 2002 (the Millennium Challenge, which was actually set in the Strait of Hormuz) that, though the red team did very much cheat, it did hint at a major weakness that wasn’t resolved.
There are US defense companies today that actually specialize in that but they weren’t given the same attention (but boy are they now).
My Army buddy once said "If you're not cheating you're not trying."
What did they expect? That's the whole point of a red team.
Reminds me of Admiral Ching Lee. He used to run red team exercises against US facilities. He once walked into a maximum security facility with a badge bearing the name and photograph of Adolf Hitler.
Anduril is the biggest one. They are based in Costa Mesa, CA and are building a bigger R&D facility in "Space Beach" (Long Beach, CA) and a manufacturing facility near Columbus, Ohio.
Afterwards, you have smaller companies like Shield AI (San Diego, CA), Saronic Technologies (Austin, TX) and some other smaller ones.
It’s crazy to believe that US would fight China in the pacific in 1-2 years. At this rate I don’t believe China will do anything as it sees US trashing at every point, making it’s allies and trade partners to rethink their strategy towards betting on US as it’s going full postal.
Because this war is driven by Israel, not the US. The destruction of Iran, no matter what the costs for the world, is seen as an existential matter for the current Israeli government.
But, destroying Iran without using nukes is not a Job Israel can do by themselves, they need the US. And while the Democrat establishment (although not the base) don't see an issue with supporting Israel activities in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon, a war with Iran was not something the Democrats would agree with.
So, they had this window of opportunity with Trump, before the midterms, and they acted.
We may not agree, but under the point of view of the Likud, it makes perfect sense.
The Pacific war is not happening unless Trump chooses to start it. China is also having political issues; a massive purge of top brass is the worst preparation for a war. See Stalin.
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