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> How do you "overfit" on the test set if you don't have the test set?

By being lucky. And with a large enough number of solutions, at least one solution will almost surely be lucky.



I guess I'm extraordinarily "lucky" then. I don't participate in competitions, but I'm often "luckier" than entire teams of people working tirelessly for months. And I charge a lot of money for it.


I'm intentionally misunderstanding your comment now for academic reasons: it's great that you recognise the role of survival bias and luck in becoming successful at many things.

Besides that, I'm very curious about who you are and what you do. Willing to reveal more?




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