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> for instance if you decrease unit cost

That doesn't diminish the hashing power of the equipment you already bought though (and the topic was obsolete equipment).

> so a relatively small improvement in hashes / watt makes a big difference to overall profitability

Yeah, that's a fair point.

> I just get sceptical if someone says this is as good as it is going to get

And I'm skeptical if people blindly extrapolate past trends, assuming that they will continue to hold. I wasn't saying that it won't get better from here on out, just that the extreme growth that was mostly fueled by quickly going through the existing nm process steps can't be sustained, and that from now on it will follow the same slowish pace as all chip miniaturization.



> That doesn't diminish the hashing power of the equipment you already bought though (and the topic was obsolete equipment).

It means even more equipment to go obsolete when improvements come through - and more equipment deployed does not equal more bitcoins generated, so it is an issue of more hardware that will ultimately end up in landfill / being scrapped.

> And I'm skeptical if people blindly extrapolate past trends

Well I'm also sceptical of people who blindly assume progress won't be made. To quote someone in 2014 predicting what would happen to ASIC design...

> As an emerging field of IC design, bitcoin mining ASICs have experienced rapid evolution over the past two years. However, they cannot keep evolving and developing at the current rate.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-can-longer-ignore-mo...

Well, still, try see how profitable your 3 year old ASIC miner is today...




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