>> On the contrary, it’ll happen much sooner. About $626B in debt is coming due for debt collateralized by office buildings in the near term
Not quite, I dont think. If defaults happen, the new owners get the building at lower prices and thus will be willing to lease at lower prices...making RTO more feasible for companies.
Who will make these loans? Lending has dried up for office space, and mid sized banks are in distress over these debts. Maybe PE or hedge funds can piece financing together, but without easy loans from banks, financing will be costly, impairing what purchase price you offer.
>> Who will make these loans? Lending has dried up for office space
Once the current owners default, the banks own the buildings. They dont have the capital to carry the buildings, so they will fire-sell the buildings. someone will buy the buildings for sure, because if you fire-sell it inexpensively enough there will be buyers. There are numerous buyers, especially sovereign funds who would buy at a sufficient haircut of peak value.
Just like the 2008 resi crisis, there were fire sales at 10% of original value. It isnt clear what the "recovery value" is for Commercial Real Estate, esp office buildings, but it may be so low that lenders are willing to lend. Also, it may be so low that syndicates buy outright.
Not quite, I dont think. If defaults happen, the new owners get the building at lower prices and thus will be willing to lease at lower prices...making RTO more feasible for companies.