And they only have ~18 months of absurd profits from just a couple of customers (Meta and Microsoft/OpenAI) who are likely to realize they don't have the revenue to support 10 figure CapEx and will chose to develop their own chips, cutting NVIDIA out of the loop.
I foresee Nvidia stock playing out like a softer version of iomega that will still have consumer demand, but not as much temporary demand from the megacorps.
What about the 1000s of companies outside of Big Tech who are interested in AI. Where will they get their AI compute?
I tell you where, from Nvidia direclty or from a CSP renting it to them. Oh wait, aren't MS, Amazon and Google such CSP? Oh right! Could that mean that Nvidia sells GPUs to CSPs which then rent it to customers or rather companies which aren't CSPs? So how do these other companies use Nvidia's GPUs from renting? Let me guess, maybe Nvidia Enterprise AI SW suite? Bingo!
And how does Nvidia benefit from these other companies? Or right, Nvidia gets $4500 license fee per GPU if a company uses Nvidia Enterprise AI solution. Oh wait, does that mean that Nvidia might be into building a SaaS business? Correct, but psst... nobody listens to Nvidia management so only few have a clue. Clearly, Nvidia is earning money only from HW to use it for hobbies like Clara, Isaac, DriveSim, Omniverse and many more... GTC was way more about SW development than HW but that was just show to keep people entertained. Nvidia also is a nice HW company employing more SW engineers than HW engineers so that SW engineers also get a chance for work.
The race to build their own chips vs buy nvidia… I imagine they do both. Any nvidia they leave lying around the others will buy and start training models with. Arms race basically and you don’t want your enemy buying the alternative.
Nvidia, being the 3rd most valued company in the world right now, couldn't get bought by any of its customers until after it's no longer relevant to leading the AI race and has been devalued accordingly.
I foresee Nvidia stock playing out like a softer version of iomega that will still have consumer demand, but not as much temporary demand from the megacorps.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/day-market-history-iomegas-in...