Democrats got 57.21% of the votes and 19 out of 19+7, which is 73%, which corresponds to your numbers. The chart I included above was for the 2022 election:
Where Democrats got 55.59% of the vote and 57% of the seats. I'm guessing they were just basing the results on the first election after redistricting occurred, and it could have been Democrats were playing a long game with their gerrymandering about predicting how demographics would change in 2024 vs 2022? Or perhaps they gerrymandered but it didn't work in 2022 which was an off election with lower turn out, or maybe it was just a fluke either way.
The problem is that we would have to average each election over 10 years to figure out if the redistricting was actually biased or not.
Incidentally, this is why Republicans are playing a dangerous game here: If 2026 turns out to be a blue wave year like 2018 was, then watering down GOP margins in Texan districts could wind up amplifying rather than calming that wave. Trump definitely has that arrogance he had in 2018 that would lead him to pressure his allies to go in a direction with an idea that he is in a better position than he actually is. I'm really not sure why Democrats don't just let Trump shoot himself in the foot.
> I'm really not sure why Democrats don't just let Trump shoot himself in the foot.
That had been their strategy, to just let Trump do things and become unpopular without drawing attention to themselves, but while Trump and Republicans have become less popular, Democrats' approval ratings have been sliding down as well (although they have a lead in the generic ballot) and polling indicates most Democratic voters think they're not doing enough to stop Trump. So, making a big show of "playing dirty" (threatening to gerrymander back in retaliation), and publicly saying that they'll no longer tie their hands behind their back, probably brings satisfaction to those people they're polling badly with. It's the kind of sentiment I've heard for years from online Democratic voters, and from people I know, but never was validated by the actual Democrats until now.
It doesn’t really matter how popular the democrats are, wherever the economy is around the midterm election will be out purely at the republicans feet since they control all branches of government. Unless Trump somehow gets lucky and America is able to magic up factories and supply chains that took China two decades to build, people are going to be pretty angry next year and a blue wave is all but guaranteed.
But ya, I guess “playing nice” is no longer in style, and taking the moral high ground (eg either CA’s non partisan redistributing process) is simply no longer viable or appreciated. Democrats have to show backbone…Or maybe we just need to find next Obama or Clinton (Bill not Hillary)…uninspiring leaders like Newsom aren’t going to do it, also AOC is old enough to run for president now, I think. Going slimy like Trump doesn’t feel right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Re...
Democrats got 57.21% of the votes and 19 out of 19+7, which is 73%, which corresponds to your numbers. The chart I included above was for the 2022 election:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Re...
Where Democrats got 55.59% of the vote and 57% of the seats. I'm guessing they were just basing the results on the first election after redistricting occurred, and it could have been Democrats were playing a long game with their gerrymandering about predicting how demographics would change in 2024 vs 2022? Or perhaps they gerrymandered but it didn't work in 2022 which was an off election with lower turn out, or maybe it was just a fluke either way.
The problem is that we would have to average each election over 10 years to figure out if the redistricting was actually biased or not.
Incidentally, this is why Republicans are playing a dangerous game here: If 2026 turns out to be a blue wave year like 2018 was, then watering down GOP margins in Texan districts could wind up amplifying rather than calming that wave. Trump definitely has that arrogance he had in 2018 that would lead him to pressure his allies to go in a direction with an idea that he is in a better position than he actually is. I'm really not sure why Democrats don't just let Trump shoot himself in the foot.