They pay is conditional. It will fully vest only if Tesla reaches market cap milestones up to $8.5 trillion and operational targets, including delivery of 20 million vehicles, 1 million humanoid robots, 1 million robotaxis, 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions. and $400bn in adjusted core earnings.
So witch way it is?
A) Tesla will easily reach all those robot milestones. Musk's pay package is unearned.
B) That robot dream is delusional and if Musk pulls a rabbit from a hat, he deserves his $1 trillion.
Tranche size is $500 billion. The first tranche milestone is $2 trillion, and the last tranche milestone is $8.5 trillion (total 12 tranches) Each tranche, other than the last two, requires an additional $500 billion increase in market capitalization. Each of the last two tranches requires an additional $1 trillion increase in market capitalization.
To hit the first market cap milestone he must increase Tesla market cap 34% matched to revenue-based operational milestone or Adjusted EBITDA-based operational milestone.
I see: The first tranche requires him to achieve a P/E ratio of about 400 if the other graphs stay flat, or maybe 500 with some decline. I've heard of higher P/E ratios in growing companies, but that's a real challenge for a stable or even declining company… it ought to keep him busy.
(I mean, I may be concerned that anyone has control. But I do not trust Elon more than some random unknown. Somewhat less, in fact.)