This was a Biden era project that has had continued support from Trump aligned NatSec personnel. Most people associated with this remain in the DoD/DoW and/or are American nationals.
For those of us in the NatSec space, our interests are largely aligned. This is why you see people like Doshi, Mastro, Colby, and others pushing for similar policies despite working under different admins.
The Chinese government has been running an ongoing disinfo campaign against Western attempts at building an ExChina REE supply chain for years [0].
Finally, China de facto blocked REE exports to all Western and Western aligned nations in 2025 - not just the US - with the EU [1], Japan [2], and India [3] facing severe export controls as a result.
It’s not the people involved that I’m worried about, or even the various players pushing agendas as they’re bound to but rather that the US is too erratic from up to. Regardless of what’s agreed there is a tangible chance trump changes his mind 24hrs later because of a brain fart or someone whispered something in his ear and promised to make him personally rich.
It’s pointless engaging with that regardless of technical merits if you don’t have some confidence it’ll stick at least medium termish
