You're making a lot of highly idealized assumptions that don't hold true in reality.
Most significantly that the increased demand due to mining will result in grid operators investing in proportional new capacity to offset it over a reasonable time scale. Instead of just driving up prices due to basic supply/demand.
Also that miners are only consuming electricity when renewables dominate the mix. Otherwise they're responsible for more CO2 emissions to do something useless.
Plus in markets like Texas, miners also manage to get subsidies intended for actually useful customers like factories to go offline at peak times. So ratepayers are essentially paying protection money so they won't over stress the grid by performing their useless work.
In a world where bitcoin miners had to install new solar capacity to entirely offset their peak usage and sell back to the grid any excess then sure, seems like that wouldn't be a big societal net negative like it is right now.
> Most significantly that the increased demand due to mining will result in grid operators investing in proportional new capacity to offset it over a reasonable time scale. Instead of just driving up prices due to basic supply/demand.
If anyone can buy a piece of land, plop down some solar panels and start selling power to the grid, that's what happens whenever the market price gets higher than the cost of doing it. If they can't, that seems more like a regulatory problem than a Bitcoin problem.
> Also that miners are only consuming electricity when renewables dominate the mix. Otherwise they're responsible for more CO2 emissions to do something useless.
~100% of new net generation capacity in the US is renewables and that seems poised to continue for economic reasons. Adding some new nuclear could also make sense in an amenable political environment (some new data centers are trying to build it) but that also doesn't emit CO2.
> Plus in markets like Texas, miners also manage to get subsidies intended for actually useful customers like factories to go offline at peak times. So ratepayers are essentially paying protection money so they won't over stress the grid by performing their useless work.
Those "subsidies" (really discounts) exist because the cost of supplying power 100% of the time is dramatically higher than the cost of supplying it 99% of the time, so you pay less if you only need it 99% of the time and the power company gets to choose when.
Having more customers that can do that allows the grid to supply power to everyone for less money. You install some solar panels whose average generation can support a Bitcoin mining operation + X number of homes. When the output is half of normal for an extended period of time, the Bitcoin mining operation cuts out and "half of normal output from twice as many panels" can power all of the homes. Without the mining operation buying half the typical output there would only be half as many panels to begin with and then you would need something like natural gas peaker plants to power the other half of the homes when solar generation is low, which both costs more and emits more CO2.
> In a world where bitcoin miners had to install new solar capacity to entirely offset their peak usage and sell back to the grid any excess then sure, seems like that wouldn't be a big societal net negative like it is right now.
If you care about CO2 then you do a carbon tax or similar (and then refund all the money to the public as checks so it doesn't damage the economy), at which point that's exactly what happens, only it happens for everybody and not just Bitcoin miners, which is what you want anyway.
Most significantly that the increased demand due to mining will result in grid operators investing in proportional new capacity to offset it over a reasonable time scale. Instead of just driving up prices due to basic supply/demand.
Also that miners are only consuming electricity when renewables dominate the mix. Otherwise they're responsible for more CO2 emissions to do something useless.
Plus in markets like Texas, miners also manage to get subsidies intended for actually useful customers like factories to go offline at peak times. So ratepayers are essentially paying protection money so they won't over stress the grid by performing their useless work.
In a world where bitcoin miners had to install new solar capacity to entirely offset their peak usage and sell back to the grid any excess then sure, seems like that wouldn't be a big societal net negative like it is right now.