The two tests give me widely different results, probably because the sampled words aren't perfectly representative and so the results should have huge error bars to account for this sampling error.
obsequious
laconic
sanguine
quotidian
enervate
On the other hand, I was able to correctly guess these words that I'd never seen before:
omphaloskepsis
crepuscular
absquatulate
callipygian
houghmagandy
quire
And then there were these, which were just totally foreign to me:
hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobia
nudiustertian
ergophobia
tittynope
Final estimate: ~73000 words