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But has the percentage of premium users stayed constant as they grew? I wonder what percentage of users must be premium for dropbox to be/stay profitable. Or perhaps what percentage of traffic must be "premium traffic". Either way, there are a lot of unknowns, but I don't think this market is sustainable. Like Jobs said, dropbox is a feature, not a product. They are able to exploit a market inefficiency for the time being. I don't see that lasting for much longer.

Dropbox's long term future rests on them evolving into something that isn't easy to duplicate or pre-bundle. And even then, unless dropbox pivots massively, the market just won't be as big. File sharing simply is not a multi-billion dollar market.

(I can't help but wonder who I'm talking to seeing as you whipped out a throwaway for a dropbox discussion thread)



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